HIV - AIDS

SEVEN years ago, when APN and many others were warning about the looming HIV/AIDS holocaust, such warnings were dismissed as scaremongering, as a "hoax." Nor did that attitude much change with the arrival of an ANC/SACP government. The new Health Minister, the lamentable Dr Nkosazana Zuma, was always much more vigorous in her pursuit of her anti-tobacco, pro-fluoride campaigns than in HIV/AIDS. Now we can see, in its full horror, how much of a "hoax" those early, dire warnings were.

All Zuma's feeble attempts to stem the spread of HIV/AIDS have failed: and the figures now are terrifying indeed, nowhere more so than in KwaZulu/Natal. Professor Alan Smith, co-ordinator of AIDS statistics in KZN, this month disclosed that HIV/AIDS testing in certain antenatal clinics in Durban townships show more than 40% of women as HIV positive. On average, he said, 32% of pregnant women attending ante-natal clinics in KZN are HIV positive.

At Durban's giant King Edward Hospital, the rate of infection has increased from 6% in 1992 to 30,23% last year. At a clinic in KwaMashu over the same period the incidence has risen from 17% to 44% and at a clinic in KwaDubeka, from 20% to 42%.

With the cooperation of a traditional healer, 126 of his patients were tested, using saliva. Nearly 85% were infected.

Of those people who had volunteered for HIV testing through the government last year, 3,8% of Whites, 5,5% of Coloureds, 17,7% of Indians and 45,2% of Blacks tested positive. Dr Smith warned that these were not representative samples because all those people would have been concerned about their HIV status. He also pointed out that the figures for Whites could be false because many of them would have chosen to be tested by their own doctors, not government clinics or hospitals.

At clinics treating people with sexually transmitted diseases (a high risk group for HIV infection) blood was last year taken anonymously from 1 000 people. Testing showed that more than half - 56,5% - were infected, "a figure going up all the time."

What is clear from this and other evidence is that, by the end of the first decade of the new millennium, many millions of South Africans will be dead, leaving millions of AIDS orphans behind them. As The Natal Witness commented in the editorial discussing the latest KZN findings, "the potential for catastrophe is enormous."

SEEMS some South Africans even now find it impossible to believe that the Y2K threat - the Millennium Bug - is serious. I have come under attack for being "alarmist" and "over the top" in our last issue, dealing extensively with the global computer crisis. Maybe so. All the information used came to me from top British and US Y2K specialists. But, of course, it is correct that no one knows, or will know, precisely what will happen till the date bug really hits, possibly from September 9.

However, I will repeat. South Africa's response to the Y2K crisis hardly inspires confidence. In its global Y2K preparedness assessment, the World Bank puts SA into the third category of countries, listed as having "significant shortcomings."

While US government officials admit they have no idea of the possible disruptions that the Y2K bug could potentially cause on the most technologically dependent nation on earth, they are taking no chances. As we disclosed in APN No 226, the 480 000-strong National Guard is being fully recalled for the first time since 1940 to help maintain law and order in the event of any Y2K-related problems.

It is also disclosed that major US cities are preparing secret command centres and preparing emergency plans against any possible breakdown in social order should there indeed be widespread computer failure on the eve of 2000. From New York come reports that a new $12 million emergency command centre is "90% complete and fully operational." It has not been officially stated that this is in readiness for any Y2K upset, but the speed with which it has been built persuades many New Yorkers that this is its real purpose.

Built above ground because of the risk of flooding from broken water mains, the 46 000 square foot complex, near the World Trade Centre in Manhattan, can house up to 100 of

the city's most senior employees and is protected by a wall of bullet-proof glass.

Other areas are taking similar precautions. State officials in Ohio have announced that they are ready to move government operations into a $13 million bunker eight miles outside downtown Columbus on December 29. The command centre will be manned 24 hours a day from New Year's Eve until it is no longer needed. It is surrounded by barbed wire, with underground dormitories, a filtered air supply, food and water. Officials say it will be used to coordinate relief efforts if there is a major failure of public utilities. And if nothing happens? Says General James Wilson, the Director of Operations: "We can all go home and watch football."

Los Angeles, which experienced serious rioting following the Rodney King trial in 1942, is understood to be preparing an operations centre five floors beneath a federal building in the centre of the city. It has its own power system and can be reached only by a secret lift.

I note that my old friend, Harry Schultz, one of the world's pre-eminent financial advisers and publisher of the HSL Newsletter, has commented on the fact that the American Red Cross has come out strongly for taking protective measures for Y2K. "People can argue with analysts/writers, but it's impossible to argue with the Red Cross, which specialises in disasters and emergencies.

"The Red Cross urges people to stock up on food, water, cash, medicine, blankets, flashlights, batteries and to keep a packed suitcase ready. That pulls the rug out from under those who say: 'No problem. Do nothing!'"

I rest my case. More about Y2K in our next issue.