CHANCES of a new Mid East war next year have "risen dramatically," according to a confidential annual assessment by Israeli military intelligence. A detailed leak of the draft report was published in the Tel Aviv daily, Yediot Aharanot, which said that the intelligence service, known as Aman, had changed its view significantly from last year. According to Yerdiot, Aman’s basic message is that "should the political impasse continue, a large-scale conflict with the Palestinians is likely and there could perhaps be one with the Syrians as well. The Palestinians are really ready for one now."

Much of the appraisal is pegged to May 4, 1999, when Yasser Arafat has pledged that he will declare an independent Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip if talks with Israel on a final peace accord remain deadlocked. The report is taken seriously in the West, as Aman’s forecasts are respected for their accuracy and objectivity. The Aman assessment concurs with those of security experts at Western embassies in Tel Aviv. There is fear that if any full-scale conflict breaks out between Israel and the Palestinians over a unilateral declaration of independence, Egypt, Jordan and Syria might feel pressured to take military action in support of a fellow Arab "state."

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FOR many months now, the European media has written off German Chancellor Helmut Kohl’s chances of gaining a record fifth term in next month’s national poll. Our advice: don’t bet on it. The old rogue has risen strongly in opinion polls in recent weeks: this with an election strategy so outrageous that his opponents still can’t believe it. He has taken to attacking his own greatest achievements: German reunification and European integration. In other words, he has become his own opposition, voicing politically incorrect prejudices held by millions of his fellow citizens. "On no account whatsoever do we want a centralised Europe," he said in one recent campaign speech. A notoriously tough operator, he might just pull it off. To be hoped so: Germany, like all Europe, will need a strong leader in the coming storms.

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The loss you take on gold is like the premium you pay on an insurance policy. You don’t really want to collect on your policy. But it’s there just in case."

The WSJ writer, Jonathan Clements, admits he doesn’t hold gold. "Gold’s performance is just too fickle for my taste. But maybe it provides the sort of risk reduction you are looking for. If that is the case, a small stake in gold could make a lot of sense."

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LAST month Niall Fitzgerald, chairman of the giant Unilever Corporation, stunned the British investment world by disclosing that his company plans to spend R3 billion on correcting the millennium bug in its computer systems. Unilever operates thousands of IT systems in 90 countries, with 300 000 employees. It expects to spend about 2,5 million manhours on the project till the end of 1999. Fitzgerald says his darkest fears are that many of the systems we now rely on for everyday life could fail and "usher in a storm of civil protest and disorder."

He also fears that the millennium bug will be used to launch a new-type crime wave. "Some of the criminal fraternity . . . are becoming aware of the opportunities this gives them. We know the Mafia has been unusually active in recruiting computer experts in the last few months: and not because they need their payroll systems updating." The idea of criminals holding companies to ransom with the threat of the millennium bug or using scrambled systems to steal vast sums may sound like the X-Files but these he believes are "the realms we are entering."

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IF you believe SA public service standards are slipping, the following may explain why. Press reports quote ANC MP Mario Rantho as saying in Parliament: "It is imperative to get rid of merit as the overriding principle in the appointment of public servants." - Financial Mail.

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US ENDS "NICE DAYS." When it first invaded SA back in the late 1970s, the US culture of sealing every sale with a "Have a Nice Day," seemed amiable enough. But after 20 years of endless repetition this, like the equally nauseating "It is a pleasure," has become very much a tiresome ordeal rather than a pleasure. Happily, corporate America is now ending this mendacious tyranny. According to US Today, at the Holiday Inn hotel chain, the script recommended for reservation staff makes no mention of any kind of day, simply concluding with the harmless "Thank you for choosing Holiday Inn." The demise of such phrases is also noted in Britain. Psychologist Sandi Mann is quoted: "Having to hide how you really feel and fake enthusiasm to customers who are rude to you can cause hypertension, coronary heart disease and even exacerbate cancer. I believe it can be a killer."