The potential for violence when, as may eventually happen, the Russian masses cannot bear their poverty and humiliation any longer, must be rated high. The CIA warns of "a period of extreme peril for Russia’s young democracy . . . the situation in Russia must be deemed a global strategic threat."

What particularly alarms Washington is the rising climate of anti-Westernism in Russia, particularly anti-Americanism, largely based on the feeling that foreigners have dominated their economy and that it is the American-controlled IMF which is responsible for the present debacle.

Obviously, this is not short-term pain. The legacy of 70 years of Communist misrule and criminal conduct cannot be shrugged off in a few years. The same deadly mixture of economic chaos, public anger and sense of national humiliation that fuelled fascism in Weimar Germany could flare up in Russia now.

He would come to power with the military solidly behind him. It is doubtful if he would try to resurrect communism, which he despises. Politically, he favours the free market, backed by a ruthless campaign against the Mafia and tax dodgers. His arrival would certainly introduce an entirely new style of Russian politics. He is loathed by the entire Russian political elite.

No one, anywhere, should welcome Russia’s crash and turmoil. With thousands of nuclear warheads, and hundreds of these atop ballistic missiles, Russia still presents a mortal threat to the West and to the US in particular. Even today Russia’s nuclear capabilities probably (I say "probably" because Western, especially US, intelligence is not good enough to gain the exact extent of these forces) substantially exceed those of the US. In the tactical nuclear area the Russian margin of superiority is total: for the simple reason that they have retained such capability while the Americans, particularly under Clinton, have materially demolished theirs.